Population survey studies have
found that 80% of respondents (I think done in the US) have a tendency to cheer
for the underdog. This actually went
beyond sports, it included pulling for a small business against a big one, a
new artist against a famous one, and other underdog/favorite preferences.
One hypothesis for how this
could have adaptively evolved is one of my favorite topics – loss aversion. From a purely probabilistic point of view,
the brain is wired to only notice rare events.
When things happen just as expected, there is nothing worth learning so
we have evolved to pay very little attention or emotion to these common/expected
events. So when the favorite wins, even
if we were cheering for the underdog, we don’t experience much of an emotional
loss. It is what was expected to
happen. On the other hand if the
underdog wins, your brain registers a rare/unexpected event and your brain
takes notice. You get a big positive
rush of dopamine.
The reverse happens if you cheer
for the favorite. If the favorite wins
you feel good, but it is dampened by the fact that is was expected. But if your team loses it is a rare
unexpected (hence learning) event and evokes a large negative emotional
reaction.
So what about the 20% who have a
dispositional tendency to cheer for the favorite? There is no clear evidence but I like Steven
Levitt’s (of Freakonomics fame) hypothesis.
He is one of these 20%. He grew
up in a small town and was one of the few people expected to succeed in the modern
dog-eat-dog world. So he grew up with a
personal investment in the feeling that the favorite should succeed. The whole idea that chance can flip this on
its head is a risk to his status in life.
So he has a visceral instinct that fairness requires that the favorite
should get exactly what he/she deserves.
The underdog winning might be a learning experience, but it is
definitely not a positive or happy one.
So think about your dispositional
tendency. Throw out the teams you cheer
for because they are your college team or hometown team. Imagine a mythical Team A v Team B where
everyone expects Team A to win. What
does your gut prefer, Team A or Team B.
If it is Team B, you are one of the 80% who is protecting your emotional
health by minimizing total future sadness.
But if your gut prefers Team A, you probably have been the favorite at
important points of your life and have a personal stake in the favorite
winning.
